As the US dollar index continued to rise and continued to brush a 20-year high, non-U.S. currencies fell. On August 29, the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.8698 yuan, down 212 basis points. At the same time, the onshore and offshore RMB also fell on the same day: the onshore RMB fell more than 270 points against the US dollar at the opening, and then continued to fall, falling below the 6.90 mark; The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar also fell below the 6.90 level for the first time in two years. In this regard, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher of the Bank of China Research Institute, recently analyzed to the reporter of China Business Daily that the recent fall of the RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by three factors: first, the external US dollar index continues to rise, which brings adjustment pressure to the RMB exchange rate due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate increase process and the weakness of the euro. The reporter noted that on August 29, the US dollar index continued to rise, breaking 109.40 during the session, setting a 20-year high. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has risen by more than 13.8%. In contrast, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has continued to fall recently: on August 22, the euro against the US dollar again fell below parity; On the 23rd, the spot exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was as low as 0.9899, the lowest in 20 years. Some analysts say that the main factors causing the current weakness of the euro are that the real and expected interest rates in the euro are lower than the US dollar, the energy supply crisis in the euro area and the disappearance of the trade surplus. In fact, against the backdrop of the strong US dollar this year, major non US dollar currencies have depreciated to a certain extent against the US dollar, but the RMB has performed relatively steadily among global currencies. Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the US dollar index has risen by nearly 14%, the euro and Sterling have fallen by more than 12% against the US dollar, the Japanese yen has fallen by more than 15% against the US dollar, and the renminbi has fallen by about 8% against the US dollar, which is significantly smaller than other currencies. Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange and spokesperson, also said at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on July 22 that the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible and has performed steadily globally. Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike and geopolitical conflicts, the main line of changes in the international foreign exchange market has been the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of major non US currencies. In this context, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has depreciated, but compared with major international currencies, the stability of the value of RMB is relatively strong. Second, the central bank has recently lowered the medium-term loan facility (MLF) and the loan market quotation rate (LPR) respectively. The trend of China US monetary policy has continued to diverge, which has caused certain disturbances to short-term cross-border capital flows and exchange rates. With regard to the reduction of MLF interest rate, on August 15, the central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, the people's Bank of China carried out a one-year medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan (including the continuation of the MLF due on August 16), which fully met the needs of financial institutions. The bid winning interest rate of MLF decreased by 10 basis points from 2.85% last month to 2.75%. Subsequently, on August 22, the LPR of 1-year period and over 5-year period were both reduced: the LPR of 1-year period was reduced from 3.70% in July to 3.65%, and the LPR of over 5-year period was reduced from 4.45% to 4.30%, which was the third time that LPR was reduced this year. Third, the recent epidemic situation in some domestic cities has been repeated, enterprises and residents are not willing to invest and consume, and economic growth still faces certain uncertainties. These factors have increased the exchange rate volatility to a certain extent. What is the future trend of RMB exchange rate? Looking to the future, Wang Youxin told reporters, "it is expected that after the short-term rapid adjustment, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will gradually converge." Because in Wang Youxin's view, "According to the speech made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the global central bank meeting, the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates substantially at the interest rate meeting in September. However, the rapid rate increase will bring greater downward pressure on the US economy. With the fall of US inflation, it is expected that the rate increase of the US Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter will return to the normal level, and the pressure on non US currencies will be significantly relieved. In addition, with the continuous increase of domestic fiscal and monetary policies, the domestic The economic recovery situation will gradually improve, which is conducive to promoting the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate. "
